Will 2025 be the year for fixed income? In this article, we examine what could be in store for fixed-income markets in the year ahead.
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A Golden Age for Income Investors
December 20, 2024Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism
December 16, 2024LPL Research’s Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism delivers market insights on what we can expect from the economy, stocks, bonds, and more. Get Outlook insights in this blog post.
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A November to Remember
December 13, 2024Solid gains for stocks gave investors a November to remember. In fact, the S&P 500’s more than 5% advance marked its best month of 2024. Several factors played into the stock market’s continued move higher. We explore those factors in this post.
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Donald Trump Elected 47th President of the United States of America
November 11, 2024Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris thanks to strong performance in key swing states that gave him 295 electoral votes to 226 for Harris. Achieving an outcome and removing policy uncertainty after an emotional election is positive for markets, especially with the U.S. economy on solid footing.
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Just When We Recalibrated, Another Shock Arrived
October 16, 2024We explore the Fed's recalibration of policy amid economic shifts, rate cuts, and labor market dynamics impacting growth and inflation.
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Beyond the Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
October 15, 2024Now that the Federal Reserve has finally cut rates, we explore possible implications for the economy and markets.
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Gold Rally Is No Flash in the Pan
October 2, 2024When it comes to investing, gold may be the antithesis of artificial intelligence (AI). The precious metal has acted as a store of value for thousands of years with zero technological innovation—gold is discovered, not developed. Gold is also a real tangible asset and can act as a potential hedge against inflation or a safe haven during times of crisis. Herein we discuss the key drivers of gold and why this rally is no flash in the pan.
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Stock and Bond Market FAQs From the Field
August 26, 2024In this article, we explore advisor FAQs from the 2024 Focus conference, including market volatility, rate expectations, and small caps.
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Key Themes for Stocks in the Second Half of 2024
July 24, 2024Now past the halfway mark of 2024, a lot of good news is priced in, valuations are elevated, and monetary policy may not offer much opportunity for upside. Key themes for stocks in the second half of 2024 include earnings, potential market volatility, and impact of elevated valuations.
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Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn
July 22, 2024LPL Research recently unveiled Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn, the semi-annual report that recaps where markets and the economy have been over the first half of 2024. I am excited to bring you a few of the key highlights today.As we reach the halfway point of 2024, a sense of persistence defines the economic and market landscape.
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Solid Gains to End the First Half
July 22, 2024Stocks finished the first half of the year the same way they started--with solid gains. Strong rallies from big tech names, combined with somewhat softer economic and inflation data, helped propel the S&P 500 to its seventh monthly gain in the past eight months and set dozens of new record highs along the way.
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Adjusting the Sector Sails: Strong May Takeaways and a June Stock Setup
June 10, 2024Takeaways from an unseasonably strong May, the technical and seasonal setup for stocks into June, and highlights of recent sector changes.
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Stocks Benefit From Solid Fundamental Foundation
June 10, 2024April showers brought May flowers as markets placed greater importance on economic growth and corporate profits than the “higher for longer” interest rate messages from the Federal Reserve (Fed). So, as you prepare for summer vacations, how much should you worry about your stock portfolios?
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Some Good News and Some Not So Good News
May 17, 2024Consumer inflation in April eased up a bit after a few disappointing reports at the beginning of the year. In this blog post, we examine the changing landscape for inflation as consumer demand eases.
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Preferred Securities: Still Our Preferred Non-Core Bond Sector
May 17, 2024It continues to be a challenging environment for a lot of fixed income markets, especially higher quality markets. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) seemingly unlikely to lower interest rates until after the summer months (at the earliest), the "higher for longer" narrative has kept a lid on a bond market rally. While falling interest rates help provide price appreciation in this higher-for-longer environment, fixed income investors are likely better served by focusing on income opportunities.
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Volatility Is Back: Understanding the Ever-Changing Market Narrative
April 25, 2024Volatility has come back into the market as the narrative shifted toward a higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop. Signs of sticky inflation and a resilient economy, including a strong labor market, have underpinned the change in expectations.
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An Excellent First Quarter for Stocks
April 24, 2024The first quarter is in the books, and it was an excellent one for stocks. The S&P 500 index rode a resilient U.S. economy, easing inflation, rising corporate profits, and anticipation of summertime rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) to solid gains in March, the fifth straight winning month, and the best first quarter since 2019.
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IPOs as a Market Tell: What a Recent Uptick Could Mean
April 3, 2024The initial public offering (IPO) market allows institutional investors to incorporate the macroeconomic landscape with individual corporate earnings data--and future earnings forecasts--to ascertain a share price that will hold up to analyst and media scrutiny coupled with overall market dynamics. Here we provide an update on recent IPO activity, performance, and discuss why IPO activity matters for markets.
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Market Breadth and Market Returns
April 3, 2024Market breadth is an important indicator to assess the overall health of the market. Current breadth readings suggest a healthy and sustainable bull market. Participation in the rally has notably expanded, especially among the more cyclical sectors. While there are signs of overbought conditions percolating; overbought does not mean the rally is over.
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Can the Spring Melt Up Continue?
April 1, 2024The S&P 500 is coming into month-end aboard an impressive 3% March rally, likely extending its winning streak to five straight months. Even more impressive is the broader market's 10.0% first-quarter price gain, which includes 21 record highs as of March 27 (equating to roughly a new high every three trading days) and a maximum drawdown of only 1.7%. In today's blog, we consider a few seasonal studies that suggest this rally could have more room to run.
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The Story Hasn’t Changed for the Fed
March 22, 2024The last two months of reports on the macro landscape were mixed. Inflation readings were hotter than expected, while retail sales were weaker than expected. And markets seemed to be in turmoil over the confusion of how the Fed would react. So, investors need to ask if the storyline has changed. We think not. Despite some hotter inflation prints, the trajectory is the same. Inflation is cooling, but that ride down to 2% will take some time and be bumpy.
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Markets Warming Up
March 21, 2024As spring begins, the weather is starting to warm up. For the stock market, the temperature has been rising for a while now. In fact, since December 2023, the S&P 500 has not experienced a pullback of even 2%. Strong starts to years tend to signal more gains ahead, so this calm market may not precede a storm. In fact, when the S&P 500 has been up in January and February, it has gained an average of 11% over the rest of the year and has been higher in 26 out of 28 cases.
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Earnings Need to Do Some Heavy Lifting to Keep Rally Going
July 27, 2023Earnings season is upon us as some banks and a small handful of other blue chip companies have already reported results for their quarters ending June 30. The results on the surface probably won't offer much to write home about given consensus estimates imply a 7% year-over-year decline in S&P 500 earnings per share. However, the key question is always what's priced in, which at least offers an opportunity for markets to react positively.
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Midyear Outlook 2023: The Path Toward Stability
July 24, 2023Now that we’re beyond the midpoint of the investing year, it’s a great time to look at where we’ve been—to help position your portfolio for the latter half of the year. LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook does this with in-depth analyses, insights, and perspectives from LPL Research’s leadership team.
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Capital Markets: The Essence of American Capitalism
July 12, 2023The long dormant capital markets have recently begun showing signs of interest from institutional investors and deal makers anxious to bring companies to market. While activity remains muted at best, expectations are focused on 2024, when there is a prevailing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be finished with its rate hike campaign, and that economic conditions will be resilient enough to underpin a strong capital markets environment.
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Better-Than-Expected First Half
July 11, 2023As we finalize the log on the first six months of 2023, we believe there's value in reflecting on recent months gone by. Doing so can help crystallize key learnings and help chart a course through the rest of the year. Looking back on the first half of 2023, it's probably fair to say the outcome has been a bit better-than-expected for the stock and bond markets, especially compared to 2022's tumult. So, what major points have we learned through the first half of the year?
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The New Standard and Poor's 500 Bull Needs a Breather
July 5, 2023On June 8, the S&P 500 entered a new bull market. After such a strong rally off the October lows, this young bull probably needs a breather. This market may be due for a pause. Bull markets are not linear. However, the impending end of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hiking campaign, and the economy's and corporate America's resilience, help make the bull case that steers LPL Research toward a neutral, rather than negative, equities view from a tactical asset allocation perspective.
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Market Responses to Fed (In)Action
July 5, 2023As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve's (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. Clearly, their expectations were not met as the economy soon fell into recession. That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change.
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Closing Out Our Equities Overweight
June 16, 2023Stocks have had a nice run, but at higher prices, the bar for further gains gets higher. We have recently made the case that there are a lot of reasons to expect the market to go higher between now and year-end. But with stocks at higher valuations, high-quality bonds offering attractive yields, an S&P 500 Index with concentrated leadership facing technical resistance at 4,300, and an elevated risk of a late-2023 recession, we think it makes sense to be a bit careful here.
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Debt Ceiling Drama Is Behind Us
June 14, 2023Every so often Washington likes to remind us how hard it can be to get things accomplished. The most recent example is the debt ceiling--the amount Congress can borrow to pay its bills. It seems like we have this debate every few years and in the end a deal is made, which is just what happened this time. Considering equity markets never really reacted to the drama, perhaps this is a good reminder that focusing on long-term objectives is the best strategy, even amid a fair amount of market noise.
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How Much of a Problem is Concentrated Leadership for Stocks?
June 13, 2023The mega-cap technology companies have powered the broad market higher this year. In fact, the 8.1% gain in the S&P 500 year to date has been driven entirely by six mega-cap stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG/L). Is this narrow leadership a problem for stocks looking forward? We try to answer that question in this blog post.
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Will History Rhyme? A Fed Pause Has Been Good for Fixed Income
May 25, 2023Economists like to remind us there is no such thing as a free lunch. In investment parlance, that just means all investments carry risk-even cash. And the big risk with cash is reinvestment risk. LPL’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recommends investors maintain a neutral duration relative to benchmarks with the expectation that Treasury yields are likely headed lower (or at least not much higher) over the next few quarters.
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Q3 Earnings Update: Better than Feared Undersells These Results
May 23, 2023While the "better than feared" label fit the past couple of earnings seasons quite well, based on the magnitude of upside surprises in the first quarter, and encouraging guidance from corporate America, that's probably underselling it.
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Investor Sentiment Tested
May 16, 2023Spring is often thought of as an uplifting time, marked by growth and renewed hope as we emerge from the long months of winter and look ahead to the rest of year. Investors saw signs of such renewed hope in recent weeks, especially on the inflation front as several inflation measures showed signs of improvement. But although it initially appeared that a stable spring would set the markets up for a calm, quiet summer, a flurry of recent activity is testing investor sentiment.
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Wading Through Financial Stability Risks: An Action Plan
March 30, 2023The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a history of raising short-term interest rates until something “breaks.” Considering the Fed has raised rates from a near-zero level to 4.75% (upper bound) over the course of only one year, it was almost a near certainty this time would be no different. However, we don’t think we’re on the brink of a full-blown crisis, as market indicators we follow suggest contagion risks are still currently low.
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Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapse
March 27, 2023Financial markets were shaken as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (SIVB), fell into FDIC receivership. SVB is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail since 2020 and the largest by assets since Washington Mutual failed in 2008. We may see a bit more market volatility than we would like to see in the short term, but this is not another 2008.
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What’s Changed in the Markets in 2023 and What it Could Mean
February 28, 2023Markets have adjusted to several changes this year. The pace at which inflation has cooled is slowing. The bar for earnings has been lowered. Market relationships to interest rates have been turned upside down. And many of last year’s losers are this year’s winners, and vice versa. Here we take a look at some of the biggest changes in the market environment so far in 2023 and what those changes could mean for investors over the balance of the year.
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Trying to Stick the Landing: Can the Stock Market Do It?
February 20, 2023Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question, with all due respect to William Shakespeare. In this blog post, LPL Financial shares their thoughts on the potential for a soft landing, the possible role China might play in that, and whether markets are pricing in too much good news.
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Opportunities in 2023
February 17, 2023Whether you're one to set ambitious New Year's resolutions or simply use the beginning of the year to reset on a few habits, there's almost always some value in reflecting on the past year before looking ahead. The same is true for the markets. When we look back on 2022, it's easy to identify the challenges--but if we look closer, we can also uncover some opportunities.
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Brightening Outlook for International Equities: Have the Tides Turned
February 16, 2023Investors got more excited about international investing late last year. Some of that was chasing better returns, as developed international equities solidly beat the U.S. over the last three months of 2022. After such strong performance in international benchmarks recently, is there enough good news still yet to come for these markets to continue to outpace the U.S.?
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Will January’s Market Hit the Trifecta? The Seasonal Indicators
February 2, 2023The S&P 500 is coming into month-end with a return of 4.6%. A positive return for January implies the index would hit the trifecta, which includes 1) a positive return for the Santa Claus Rally period, 2) a positive return for the first five days of January, and 3) a positive monthly return in January.
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A Feisty Bull-Bear Debate: Weighing the Pros and Cons
February 2, 2023The latest episode of the debate between stock market bulls and bears has gotten more interesting. For every valid point from one side, there’s an equally compelling argument on the other side. So we’ll just recognize that the outlook is uncertain, weigh the pros and cons, glean what we can from the past, and give it our best shot.
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2022/2023 Tax Season Guide
January 31, 2023To ease some of the burdens of tax season, LPL Financial has created this helpful 2022/2023 Tax Season Guide, which contains all the information you may need to easily address tax issues and questions that you might face. It will assist you in becoming familiar with important dates, deadlines, challenges, and opportunities that may arise during tax season.
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2023 Market Outlook: LPL Research Takes a Look at the Year Ahead
January 18, 20232022 was a dizzying year as markets and the global economy continued to find itself out of balance due to the still present after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy response to it. If 2022 was about recognizing imbalances that had built in the economy and starting to address them, we believe 2023 will be about setting ourselves up for what comes next as the economy and markets find their way back to steadier ground.
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Outlook 2023: Finding Balance
January 16, 2023Through all the challenges, newfound opportunities, and every high and low we've experienced during the last couple of years, it's no surprise why we might be striving for more balance. The news we're hearing on a daily basis has the potential to disrupt the balance of our lives. But with resilience, perspective, and the support of close connections, we can navigate through it all and regain our sense of equilibrium.
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Reasons for Optimism
January 13, 2023The beginning of a calendar year is often the time when the previous year’s reflections transition to a new year’s hopes. Given the market’s continued instability during 2022 and a resulting tough period for stock and bond prices, everyone is hoping for a fresh start. And history gives us cause for optimism following a difficult year.
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Market, Stocks, and Bonds: Lessons Learned from 2022
January 12, 2023We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, LPL Research has a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary. We got some things wrong last year, no doubt. But those who don't learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them. Here are some of our lessons learned from 2022.
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Playbook for a Fed Pivot: Exploring Equity and Fixed Income Market Performance
January 10, 2023Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate near 5.0% in May or June of 2023. While the market has welcomed this news, history suggests the path to a Fed pivot could be volatile for stocks due to elevated inflation and interest rate risk.
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Maintaining Your Investment Cool When Markets Are Volatile
November 14, 20226 points that can help you feel more at ease with market volatility Although market uncertainty might make you feel jittery, keeping your investment cool is critical to your financial success. While it's hard to watch your portfolio value fluctuate, remember these six things before acting out of emotion.
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Three Things to Know About Recessions
November 11, 2022This post reminds us of three things we know about historical recessions: technical definition, warning signals, and not perfectly concurrent. As more metrics start blinking red, sticking to long-term investing plans with guidance from a financial professional is becoming more and more important.
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5 Top Questions on Inflation and What You Need To Know
November 10, 2022Been there, done that. Don’t want to do it again. That’s how many people who lived through the 1970s and 1980s feel about inflation. But today’s reality is that your money isn’t going as far as it once did, and you’re probably wondering if the situation will get worse. Since there isn’t a crystal ball to predict what will happen with the economy, let's focus on what we know. In this post, we focus on some of the most common inflation-related questions and answers.
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Low Bar for Earnings Season Brings Third Quarter Expectations Down
November 10, 2022Expectations are very low for this earnings season. The challenges are many, with intense cost pressures and slowing economic growth at the top of the list. The chorus of analysts and strategists calling for big cuts to estimates has gotten louder. Expect estimates to come down, but not collapse. Here we take a look at whether expectations are low enough as we preview the third quarter earnings season.
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Looking Ahead
November 8, 2022As we look ahead, we discuss why there may be emerging reasons to believe that the next year may be more constructive than the last.
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Pockets of Vulnerability Magnified by Monetary Policy
October 18, 2022As Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to emphasize the Fed's commitment toward restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher. Markets are currently pricing in another 75-basis point rate hike at the November 2 Fed meeting as calls for the Fed to halt its aggressive campaign are mounting. Worries persist that tightening financial conditions, underpinned by a stronger dollar, will lead to deeper cracks within the global financial system.
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Markets on Watch as Xi Jinping’s Influence to be Tested in October
October 12, 2022On October 16, China will begin its 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. This plenum is especially significant because it is expected that President Xi Jinping will be granted an unprecedented third term, something that he set in motion in 2018 when term limits were abolished.
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Could the Worst be Behind Us?
October 10, 2022This has clearly been a challenging year for households. Stocks and bonds are both down significantly. Elevated food and gas prices continue to stretch budgets, and higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs. But we continue to see signs that the worst may be behind us.
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Why It May Be Time to Take Advantage of Higher Yields
October 10, 2022The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee is increasing its recommended interest rate exposure in its tactical allocation from underweight to neutral. Now that interest rates have moved substantially higher, we believe opportunities in fixed income have improved and are looking to add back to certain areas within fixed income that may benefit.
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How Much Higher Can Rates Go?
September 27, 2022Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years. U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher as well. We think we've seen the biggest moves higher in yields, but as long as inflationary pressures continue to surprise to the upside, interest rate volatility will likely remain.
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Getting Jobs Market Back into Balance
September 23, 2022Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell reiterated his warning that getting inflation under control will require some pain. Powell is likely making these warnings based on the arcane, clunky relationship between inflation and unemployment. The key to getting the market back into balance is a bigger labor force, and the economy is starting to experience a larger labor force as individuals come off the sidelines and rejoin the job market.
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September’s Calendar Cruelty for Stocks
September 10, 2022The difficult 2022 for stocks may not get much easier because as we now wait for better news on the inflation front, we have to contend with a seasonally weak month of September. While we got some welcome news in last Friday's jobs report, more evidence of falling inflation will take time to materialize. The good news is a seasonally strong fourth quarter is right around the corner.
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The Best and Worst of Times
September 8, 2022When it comes to stock market performance, August was "the best of times, and the worst of times." The strong market rally that peaked in mid-August was viewed by many analysts as a transition from a bear to bull market, based on the surge in breadth that stocks enjoyed and the magnitude of the two-month rally that began in mid-June totaling 17%.
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3 Factors That Could Change the Inflation Course
August 5, 2022For the past year, supply-related problems contributed more to inflation than demand-related imbalances, but that may be changing soon. There are at least three factors that could change the course of inflation.
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What a Week for the Stock Market
August 4, 2022Last week was quite a week. These days a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting alone gets a lot of headlines and has market participants on the edge of their seats. Add to that the second straight quarter of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth that exacerbated recession fears, the busiest week of earnings season, and important but sometimes under-the-radar inflation data, and last week was epic for market watchers.
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Managing Market Volatility
August 3, 2022So far, this year hasn’t seen a full-blown crisis like 2008–2009 or 2020, but the ride has been very bumpy. We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of volatility the first part of 2022. This commentary includes excerpts from Midyear Outlook 2022: Navigating Turbulence
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Constructive, Not Complacent: Lowering S&P 500 Target
July 29, 2022Stocks have been unable to make up much ground since the June 16 lows, with a bear market rally amounting to only around a 4.3% gain in the S&P 500 Index since then (as of July 1). While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent.
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Looking Forward
July 27, 2022Both stock and bond markets have been challenging this year, but in this blog post we explain what this could mean looking forward.
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Relief at the Pump and for Portfolios?
July 7, 20222022 has been rough all-around for the American consumer. Not only are we battling decades-high inflation, but investors' portfolios are off to one of the worst starts to a year in history as we near the halfway point. It may be early, but we see some potential signs that energy trends could be changing, which would not only have positive implications for consumers’ wallets, but also potentially investors’ investment portfolios.
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Bear Market Q and A
July 5, 2022The bear market that started on June 13 has left the S&P 500 Index 23.5% below its January 3 high. Heightened fears of recession and that the Fed might “break something” sent stocks down for the 10th week out of 11 for only the second time in history. To help investors manage through this difficult period, we answer some of the top questions we’re getting about bear markets and list some things to watch to assess progress toward an eventual durable low.
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A Bear Market is Officially Here
June 22, 2022A bear market is officially here thanks largely to stubbornly high inflation. For many of us, it has probably felt like a bear market for a while now, but the S&P 500 Index didn't close more than 20% below its January 3 record high until June 13. So now that the bear market is here, what should investors expect? Read this blog post to learn more.
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Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead?
June 21, 2022This year has been tough for investors, not just because stocks have fallen but also because bonds have not helped mitigate those losses as they have historically done. In this post, we discuss the outlook for diversified portfolios of stocks and bonds to make the case that the 60/40 portfolio isn't dead.
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The Economy Is Slowing But Not Shrinking
June 10, 2022Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking. Further, we argue that a slowing economy is very different than a shrinking one.
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Bull Market Hangs By a Thread
June 8, 2022The bull market that began in March of 2020 came dangerously close to an end. From March 23, 2020 through January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 Index gained 114% (excluding dividends). From that January 3 closing high through the recent low on May 19, the S&P 500 fell nearly 19%, narrowly avoiding the level at which bull markets end and bear markets begin.
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Looking through the Clouds
June 6, 2022At the risk of sounding cliche, making the case for stocks to stage a second half rally back to the prior highs requires investors to see through some heavy cloud cover. If you prefer another market cliche, it's times like these when investors need a crystal ball. We fully acknowledge how tough it is to see the bull case for stocks right now, and a retest of recent lows is certainly possible, but in this post we lay out the bull case for the second half of the year.
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Dawn of a New Era for Core Bonds
June 3, 2022Core bond investors have experienced the worst start to the year ever. However tough this year has been so far though (and it has been tough), the potential for future returns has improved meaningfully, in our view. Starting yields tend to be a good predictor of future returns and have become more attractive in a number of markets recently. With yields on most fixed income markets moving sharply higher, now could be a good time to revisit fixed income markets.
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Corporate America Delivers, Market Attention Focused Elsewhere
June 2, 2022First quarter earnings season was solid by just about any measure, but based on recent market behavior it's obvious that in general market participants paid little attention. This is a macro-driven market, so it will likely take positive macro developments, i.e., better news on the inflation front, to turn stocks around. However, these results are impressive on their own and shouldn't hurt the case for the bulls.
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Have We Really Seen Extreme Pessimism Yet?
May 20, 2022It's been a very tough start to the year with both stocks and bonds down sharply. So perhaps it is no surprise that investor sentiment polls are showing signs of extreme pessimism. In this blog post, we look at some of the latest investor sentiment data and share our thoughts about the disparity between what investors are saying and what they are actually doing.
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Volatility Continues
May 18, 20222022 has been a challenging year for investors so far. The S&P 500 Index just had one of its worst Aprils in decades, and May is off to a rocky start. When markets are shaky, it can be helpful to look to long-term fundamentals that have provided the foundation of positive returns for stocks and bonds over the long run. We believe patient investors stand a better chance of meeting their long-term goals.
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April Showers Bring May Flowers
May 16, 2022As we move into spring and leave behind the last signs of a long winter, many worries from a chilly start to the year for markets, unfortunately, are still with us. The S&P 500 Index had its worst April in more than 40 years, leaving the index down over 13% for the year. Previously highflying stocks have come back to earth, with many of them cut in half or more. Just as April’s dark storm clouds are often chased away by a brighter May, we remain optimistic that more sunshine could be coming.
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Why You Shouldn’t Sell Your Stocks in May This Year
May 6, 2022“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we tackle this commonly cited seasonal pattern and why it might not play out this year, similar to recent years.
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Businesses and Consumers Likely Protected From Near-Term Recession
May 4, 2022Not all recessions are created equal. Previous downturns in the U.S. were prompted by various shocks, with the most recent recession started by health and government-induced shutdowns. Other recessions started in the corporate sector, whereas some started from commodity shocks. The next one could start from geopolitical tensions. Nonetheless, we think the current business and consumer environments are safe from near-term recession risks.
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An Attractive Entry Point
May 2, 2022It has been a turbulent 2022 so far for investors. The S&P 500 Index is on track for its worst April in more than 40 years, the Nasdaq entered a bear market on April 26 with its more than 20% decline, and bonds, which typically provide ballast for diversified portfolios during periods of stock market volatility, have not protected. The investing climate is quite challenging, but history suggests patience will be rewarded.
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What to Watch This Earnings Season
April 29, 2022First quarter earnings season is rolling. BlackRock, Delta Airlines, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley were among the first 16 S&P 500 companies to report March quarter results, following 20 index constituents with quarters ending in February that had already reported. In this post, we preview earnings season, highlight what we are watching, and share our latest thoughts on the 2022 profit outlook.
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Headwinds to Global Growth: An Economy of Two Halves
April 14, 2022LPL Research reduced U.S. and global GDP forecasts due to Russian commodity disruptions, elevated inflation dynamics, and higher borrowing costs. Still, we expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.7-3.2% in 2022, supported by business investment and consumer services spending in the latter half of this year.
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A Ways to Go
April 13, 2022This market may have a bit more left in the tank. The market returns we witnessed in March seem to bear this out, as stocks surged during the month despite the backdrop of war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, and surging interest rates.
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Tempered but Optimistic Enthusiasm Over Stocks
April 8, 2022As the stock market recovered from the 2020 pandemic lows, valuations reached levels not seen since the dotcom bubble more than 20 years ago. The reopening economy and massive fiscal stimulus helped fuel one of the strongest starts to a bull market ever (a bull market that just turned two-years-old last week).
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Are Core Bonds Under Pressure?
April 7, 2022Core bond investors have experienced one of the worst starts to the year ever, potentially calling into question the validity of bonds in a portfolio. Despite the poor start, we don’t think the value proposition for bonds has changed much. Moreover, with yields on most fixed income markets moving sharply higher, now could be a good time to revisit fixed income markets.
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Downshift in U.S. Market Growth But Still Above Trend
March 14, 2022We currently expect the U.S. economy to grow 3.7% in 2022. The risks are to the downside since the Fed may err on tightening too fast, the recent commodity spike may trickle down to the U.S. consumer, and supply and demand imbalances may last longer than expected. This forecast is lowered from our previous 4-4.5% range originally published in Outlook 2022: Passing the Baton. The rest of this commentary explains the overall themes supporting the forecast.
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How Soon Are Rate Hikes Coming?
March 8, 2022With inflationary pressures running higher than many central bankers are comfortable with, calls for interest rate hikes have become louder. A number of important central bank meetings are set to take place in March including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, to name a few. As such, March could be an important month for monetary policy shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented shock across the global economy.
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Positivity Amidst Uncertainty
March 7, 2022Stocks have gotten off to a very rocky start in 2022, with the potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes coming and the geopolitical worries over Russia and Ukraine only adding to the uncertainty. We don't want to minimize the impact of that major geopolitical event, but there is some positive news out there, even though it might not feel like it.
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Strong Earnings Momentum to Start 2022
March 4, 2022Corporate America has capped off an outstanding 2021 with an excellent fourth quarter earnings season so far. Entering 2021, the consensus estimate for S&P 500 Index earnings per share (EPS) was less than $170. Now with fourth quarter results mostly in the books, that number is 22% higher at $208. Here we recap another solid fourth quarter earnings season and discuss what the results could mean for earnings growth and stock market performance in 2022.
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The Valentine’s Day Index
February 18, 2022High inflation continues to cloud the economic outlook while its impact on the potential path of rate hikes has left markets unsettled. Inflation is a serious topic, but occasionally it’s useful to revisit it from a lighter perspective. We celebrated Valentine’s Day this last week, and as we do every year, LPL Research takes a look at changing prices from the perspective of some popular ways to celebrate the day with our annual Valentine’s Day Index.
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Stocks' Road Ahead
February 17, 2022The calendar had barely flipped to 2022 and investors were reminded that even attractive long-term stock returns come with a cost: volatility. In this blog post, we share research from LPL that shares why stocks' recent volatility may not be cause for concern just yet.
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Which Region Will Get the Gold in 2022
February 17, 2022In our special Winter Olympics edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we hand out medals to the U.S., developed international, and emerging markets. Who do we think will get the gold?
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Sustainable Investing Year in Review
February 3, 2022Sustainable investing hit several milestones in 2021, but continued to attract its critics. In this article, we look at how sustainable investing fits within the broader concept of sustainability, its growth during 2021, and an implementation framework that has been helpful for many. A well diversified sustainable investing portfolio doesn’t mean that an investor has to make a choice between achieving market-like returns and being an aware social and environmental steward.
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Moving Forward After a Pullback
January 28, 2022Stocks have gotten off to a tough start in 2022. Why has the market pulled back and what might we see going forward?
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Potential Catalysts for a Market Turnaround
January 27, 2022After a tough start for stocks in 2022, investors are looking for reasons to expect a rebound. After more than doubling off the pandemic lows in March 2020, without anything more than a 5% pullback in 2021, stocks probably needed a break. That doesn’t, however, make this dip feel much more comfortable. Here we cite some reasons we don’t expect this selloff to go a lot further, though a 10% drawdown in the S&P 500 seems reasonable to expect.
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Can Corporate America Keep it Rolling?
January 25, 2022Corporate America has been on quite a run. Coming into 2021, S&P 500 Index companies were expected to generate less than $170 in earnings per share. As 2022 begins, it looks like that number may end up higher than the latest LPL Research estimate of $205, one of the biggest earnings upside surprises ever and a big reason why stocks did so well last year. But 2021 earnings are not yet fully in the books. We have one more quarter to go, which we preview here.
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Don't Expect the Fed To End This Bull Anytime Soon
January 25, 2022The Federal Reserve (Fed) has engineered a massive hawkish shift, causing a bit more stock market volatility recently. But how worried should investors be? Here we take a look back at historical performance for stocks before, after, and much after initial Fed rate hikes to help reassure any nervous investors out there.
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New Beginnings in 2022
January 25, 2022With the New Year comes new beginnings, new goals, new challenges, new friendships, and new opportunities. 2021 was an incredible year for the economy and investors, but to us, the future remains bright for 2022 and beyond.
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Three 2021 Market Lessons for 2022
January 25, 2022As we launch into the New Year, we’re highlighting three 2021 market lessons that we think may matter for 2022: 1) equity valuations are a poor timing mechanism, 2) structural forces have a large influence on interest rates and may keep them relatively low, and 3) politics and markets don’t mix.
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How Much Higher Can Treasury Yields Go?
January 4, 2022We expect interest rates to move modestly higher in 2022 based on near-term inflation expectations above historical trends and improving growth expectations once the impact of COVID-19 variants recede. Our year-end 2022 forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield is 1.75–2.00%. An aging global demographic that needs income, higher global debt levels, and an ongoing bull market in equities may keep interest rates from going much higher.
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Stock Market Outlook 2022: Another good year?
January 3, 2022We expect solid economic and earnings growth in 2022 to help U.S. stocks deliver additional gains next year. If we are approaching—or are already in—the middle of an economic cycle with at least a few more years left (our view), then we believe the chances of another good year for stocks in 2022 are quite high.
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We're Moving to a New Office
December 20, 2021When the COVID pandemic began in early 2020, many people, including our team, started working from home. We quickly realized we could provide the same service from home that we'd offered from our office. Consequently, when it was time to renew our lease, we decided to continue our day-to-day operations from home. As a family-owned, family-focused firm, we will still provide the same service we have brought to you and your families for the last 40 years.
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LPL Research Discusses Outlook 2022 & the Coming Year
December 17, 2021We believe pent-up demand, gradual improvement in supply chain challenges, solid labor force growth, and productivity gains will all contribute to another year of above-trend economic growth in 2022. COVID-19-related risks remain and the potential for a policy mistake may be elevated as the economy moves towards normalization, but we think the overall environment will be supportive of business growth and ultimately equity markets.
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Outlook 2022: Passing the Baton
December 16, 2021The LPL Research team shares investment insights and market guidance analysis as we head into 2022. Businesses on the whole adapted and evolved, so the economy continues to create opportunities for investors.
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Will Omicron Ruin the Santa Rally?
December 15, 2021Although Omicron has caused some uncertainty, LPL Research is optimistic that the usual December bullish season will take place.
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Holiday Resilience
December 15, 2021The path back to normal has been bumpier than anticipated, but the U.S. economy continues to show some strong momentum.
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The Stock Market, Economy, and New Year: Three Reasons To Be Thankful
December 1, 2021There are only a few weeks to go in 2021 and it has been an incredible year for the stock market bulls. In fact, in many ways it could go down as one of the best years ever. This week, in honor of Thanksgiving, we wanted to take a closer look at three reasons to be thankful. From the stock market to the economy, there are indeed many reasons to be thankful this year.
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A Peek at Peak Inflation
November 29, 2021After an upside inflation surprise in October, it's clear that peak inflation may still be ahead, possibly even pushing into 2022. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its position that elevated inflation will be transitory, we have yet to see progress. In this market update, we look at five signs to watch for over the next several months that may signal that inflation may be near or at its peak.
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Many Reasons to be Thankful
November 15, 2021The past year and a half have tested all of us, but overall, the economy continues to strengthen, COVID-19 trends are greatly improving, and this still relatively young bull market is alive and well. As the leaves turn colors and begin to fall to the ground, there are many reasons to be thankful.
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Developed International: If Not Now, When?
November 11, 2021Since we began our investing careers, we’ve had the concept of diversification drilled into our heads. Some refer to it as the only free lunch in investing. Well, when it comes to geography, that advice hasn’t been helpful for some time (you could say the same about value-style investing). Staying close to home and favoring the United States won’t always be the best move, but for now, we think it still is—as we discuss here.
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5 Things That Might Spook Markets
November 5, 2021With Halloween over the weekend, what better to write about this week than what scares us? If our positive near-term market outlook proves to be overly optimistic, we believe one—or perhaps more than one—of these five things will likely be the culprit: inflation, an aggressive Federal Reserve, profit margin pressures, pulling forward of seasonal gains, and potentially overly bullish sentiment.
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Bullish Setup Into Year-End
October 29, 2021The S&P 500 Index has gained more than 20% so far this year, making more than 50 record highs along the way. Certainly nobody should be upset with that return if that was all 2021 brought us. However, we see signs that there could be more gains to come in the final two months of the year.
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Q3 Earnings Preview: Less Upside
October 29, 2021We have used most of the superlatives we know to describe corporate America’s stunning performances over the past two earnings seasons. Despite lofty expections, results exceeded estimates by the biggest margins we’ve ever seen. We expect solid earnings gains during the upcoming third-quarter earnings season, but upside surprises will be smaller.
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Answering the Top Debt Ceiling Questions
October 18, 2021Last week, Congress was able to push back a fast-approaching deadline for raising the debt ceiling to December. Markets applauded the move with a relief rally. This week we look more closely at the role the debt ceiling plays in government financing, what could happen if the debt ceiling is not raised in a timely way, and why market participants were skittish about the approaching deadline as we look ahead to December.
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Change May Bring Opportunities
October 11, 2021One constant in life is change. During the past year and a half, we have experienced more change than any of us bargained for. Change is disruptive—but also brings opportunities.
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Early Thoughts on 2022
October 11, 2021With the fourth quarter underway-historically the best quarter for stocks, by the way-2022 is fast approaching. While a lot can still happen between now and the end of 2021, we don't think it's too early to start thinking about what stocks might do next year.
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Revisiting Our 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast
September 30, 2021LPL Research examines two key elements that prompted us to slightly lower our year-end forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield.
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Policy Risks Loom But Clarity Ahead
September 30, 2021LPL Research explores a few policy-related risks that may increase market volatility in the near-term but maintain the fundamental backdrop for the economy remains strong.
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The Bull Market Continues
September 13, 2021The resiliency of the economy continues to surprise and delight us better than our highest expectations for the year.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Poking The Bear
September 13, 2021LPL Research explores five things that some bears believe that do not worry us.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Why Stagflation Isn’t In the Cards
August 27, 2021LPL Research shares their current outlook on stagflation, the misery index, and inflation.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Corporate America Does It Again
August 18, 2021LPL Research comments on surprising earnings report numbers as they continue to come in.
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Six Months and Counting
August 18, 2021Looking ahead, our stock market outlook remains positive as fundamental drivers have been robust, though we acknowledge that valuations are elevated.
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Weekly Market Commentary - COVID Update: Delta Variant Market Impact
August 18, 2021LPL Research shares some insight into how the Delta variant may impact markets throughout August 2021.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Five Things To Know Heading Into August
August 9, 2021LPL Research shares some insight into what may be on the horizon for markets, policy, and the economy as we head into August 2021.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Six Surprises So Far in 2021
July 28, 2021LPL Research talks about a few things that have surprised them with markets, policy, and the economy in 2021.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed
July 21, 2021LPL Research provides an overview of their predictions on the economy, policy, stocks, and bonds for the rest of 2021 and beyond.
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Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed
July 19, 2021Markets are always forward looking, and in LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed, we help you keep your eyes on the road ahead. We focus on the next 6–12 months, when markets may be looking at which latecomers to the rally have the strength to extend their run and whether there may be new beneficiaries of the global reopening.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Three Things to Watch This Earnings Season
July 19, 2021LPL Research anticipates a strong earnings season and outlines the three things investors should keep on their radars this quarter.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Three Things That Worry Us
July 13, 2021LPL Research explores three things that worry us—and could make the market more susceptible to a pullback as we enter the second half of 2021.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Inflation And What the Fed Is Saying
June 23, 2021Inflation seems to be on the rise, but LPL Research believes there are good reasons to think it will be transitory.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Policy Shifts May Challenge Markets
June 18, 2021Policy tailwinds may turn into headwinds in 2022, but economic fundamentals are likely to dominate.
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Gearing Up For Summer
June 18, 2021As we move into June, a path to normalcy is coming quickly with stadiums allowing full capacity, restaurants filling up, and summer vacations in full swing. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to recover remarkably quickly and the stock market is near all-time highs. As of now, this year is on pace to be the best year for GDP growth since the early 1980s, bolstered by fiscal and monetary stimulus.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Proceed With Caution in the Bond Market
June 18, 2021Long-term interest rates have traded sideways recently, but LPL Research argues that high-quality bonds can play a pivotal role in mitigating equity risk.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Stock Market Gains Likely To Slow
June 18, 2021As this bull market gets a little older, the pace of stock market gains will likely slow, but a strong economic recovery lies ahead as the reopening continues.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Economy Picking Up Speed
May 19, 2021LPL Research explains why inflation is making headlines and why investors should not be overly concerned.
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Out of the Shadows
May 11, 2021As the calendar has turned to May, the popular “Sell in May and Go Away” stock market cliché is getting a lot of airtime.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Amazing Earnings Season
May 11, 2021LPL Research raises its year-end S&P 500 Index fair value target range again in the wake of a stunning Q1 2021 earnings season.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Time To Sell In May?
May 6, 2021LPL Research notes some possible reasons for a pause in the rally and why any potential pullbacks won’t last very long.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Is All The Good News Priced In?
April 30, 2021LPL Research believes investors are appropriately optimistic, given the improving economy, the pace of vaccinations, fiscal stimulus, and surging earnings.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Peak Optimism?
April 21, 2021While optimism surrounding the reopening is certainly understandable, LPL Research takes a look to see if sentiment is flashing a near-term contrarian warning sign for stocks.
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Market Commentary - The Earnings Boom Is Here
April 14, 2021The outstanding fourth-quarter earnings season we had in 2020 is a tough act to follow, but 2021’s first quarter has the makings of another potentially great earnings season.
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Market Commentary - Raising Forecasts…Again
April 14, 2021LPL Research revises previous forecasts to better reflect the growing optimism of an economy on the rebound.
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Spring Into A Positive Outlook
April 14, 2021Last month marked the one-year anniversary of the bottom of the vicious pandemic-induced bear market for the S&P 500 Index. Despite the turmoil of the past year, investors who did not get scared out of stocks have had a lot to smile about.
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Market Signals - Let’s Talk About Inflation
April 5, 2021LPL Research examines inflation concerns and explain why they think any increases in inflation will most likely be fleeting.
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Market Commentary - Are We on the Brink of an Inflation Crisis?
April 5, 2021LPL Research explains why any upticks in inflation will ultimately prove transitory.
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Market Commentary - The Second Year Of The Bull Market Begins
March 24, 2021The bear market ended one year ago this week, finishing one of the fastest and most vicious bear markets of all-time—one that led to a drawdown of 34%. Things have come full circle now, as stocks have staged a furious rally, with new highs happening across the globe as the economy recovers at a record pace.
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Market Commentary - March Madness: Stock Market Edition
March 24, 2021LPL Research share their “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2021.
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Market Signals - 4 Things That Really Matter For Stocks in 2021
March 22, 2021LPL Research discuss four things that matter the most for stocks in 2021.
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The Return of Normal is Approaching
March 22, 2021It’s now been over a year since COVID-19 first hit American shores. While the pandemic has affected everyone to varying degrees, we can all agree that everyone’s life is different today than it was a year ago. It’s difficult to remember what normal looks like at this point.
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Market Commentary - Sustainable Investing Year In Review
February 23, 2021Increasingly more people realize that their sustainability concerns can be address through their investments. As more investors embark on the sustainable investing journey—learn what it is, why one pursues it, and how to do it—assets into sustainable funds will continue and investors will have more choices from which to construct sustainable investing portfolios.
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Market Commentary - The Search For Income
February 18, 2021LPL Research considers some unique income ideas for diversifying investor portfolios & potentially reducing interest rate risk.
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Street View - Three Types of Lies
February 18, 2021You can take any data and tell any story you want, but when you want to invest, you want to know what really matters.
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Market Signals - LPL Research Says It’s Time for an Upgrade
February 18, 2021LPL Research provides strong reasons for an increased forecast for growth and corporate profits in the new year.
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Market Commentary - Raising GDP And Stock Market Forecasts
February 18, 2021The resiliency of the US economy continues to exceed expectations, supporting our increased forecast for growth and corporate profits in 2021.
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Market Signals - GameStop: What Does It Mean?
February 5, 2021LPL Research discusses the recent short stock frenzy, a positive earnings season, and how the Super Bowl has historically impacted stocks.
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Market Commentary - Markets Shrug Off Debt Levels
February 5, 2021US debt levels have soared during the pandemic, but the market is taking it in stride, staying focused on reopening the economy.
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Market Signals - Positive Trends Send Strong Signals for 2021
January 29, 2021Real-time data is sending positive news for the economy in 2021. Small cap stocks’ outperformance signals the early stages of an economic expansion, and high stock valuations appear justified. COVID-19 data is starting to show better trends.
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Market Commentary - Small Caps Still Solid
January 29, 2021Small cap stocks have outperformed large cap stocks over the last several months. They’re enjoying strong breadth and the earnings outlook is strong. This is a favorable part of the economic cycle.
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Market Commentary - Earnings Recession Is Likely Over
January 29, 2021Fourth quarter 2020 corporate earnings season likely will be the last in this earnings recession. Earnings may grow in the first quarter of 2021 and beyond. The economic recovery can drive a rebound in corporate profits.
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Market Signals - More Stimulus, New Policies, and Stellar Earnings Season
January 29, 2021LPL Research explains Q4 earnings, more stimulus, impact of the Democratic blue wave on markets, and where to invest in Joe Biden’s new economic policy plan.
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Street View - Surprises to Start 2021
January 21, 2021The stock market has started off 2021 surprisingly well, and LPL Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick says this bull market is alive and well.
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What 2021 Policies Could Mean for Your Investments
January 14, 20212021 policy is coming into focus as Democrats win majorities in both the US House and Senate. This may mean higher taxes but also more stimulus. Treasury yields are higher, but so are jobless claims. What’s next for stocks?
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Market Policy Projections for 2021
January 14, 2021Democratic control of Congress may not impact 2021 policy as much as many believe. The biggest changes may be around taxes, regulation, and stimulus prospects. With the elections behind us, 2021 policy is coming into focus.
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The 10 Lessons LPL Research Learned in 2020
January 14, 2021We look at what happened in 2020 and what that means for 2021. Right now the economy is showing some cracks, but the markets are looking ahead. Plus, what the markets are saying about the Georgia runoffs.
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10 Economic Lessons from 2020
January 14, 20212020 was a unique year, from the longest economic expansion ever to the shortest recession on record. Stock markets are forward-looking, and they want clarity on elections, too. Above all else, 2020 showed our ability to persevere.
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A New Economic Start in 2021
January 14, 20212020 was a tumultuous year. We likely had the shortest recession ever and began a new economic expansion. Small business and effective COVID-19 vaccines hold the key to continued economic growth in 2021.
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Stocks and Bonds Outlook for 2021
January 14, 2021Stocks and bonds posted strong returns in 2020, and we believe this early-stage bull market may be set for more strong performance in 2021. Opportunities for bond investors may require more patience.
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Outlook 2021: Powering Forward
January 14, 2021LPL Research’s annual market outlook Outlook 2021: Powering Forward, which reviews what happened in 2020 and what to expect in 2021. It covers stocks and bonds, the economy, and a post-election policy environment built on new challenges, new opportunities, and new politics. We are looking forward to a new year--and to a world very different from the one we're leaving behind.
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Weekly Market Commentary: Three Reasons We Like Small Caps
October 29, 2020Markets have come a long way since March lows, and we see further gains ahead for stocks. We think small cap stocks in particular may have attractive growth potential.
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LPL Market Signals - Getting Better is Good Enough
October 29, 2020Stocks continue their seasonal volatility, while the economy shows more signs of improving. Earnings season has come on strong, and we're warming up to small cap stocks. Plus, the latest on markets and the election.
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LPL Market Signals - Stimulus Talks, Election News, and Earnings Season
October 21, 2020It is a busy week. We consider the strong week of the S&P 500 Index in more than three months, ongoing stimulus talks, election news, potential tax increases, plus earnings season.
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Weekly Market Commentary: Earnings Growth is Approaching
October 21, 2020Corporate America will get closer to the return of earnings growth this earnings season. Investors will need to watch for continued impact from COVID-19, policy changes based on the election outcome, and winners that keep winning.
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LPL Market Signals - Special Pre-Election Preview
October 21, 2020LPL Financial Research discusses factors possibly affecting the elections, including stocks, technology, stimulus, COVID-19, the Supreme Court, and jobs.
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LPL Market Signals - The 4th Quarter That Will Be
October 21, 2020Third quarter delivered unexpected S&P 500 Index gains that historically have led to a strong fourth quarter. Factors that may weigh in include President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, recent limited job growth, no new stimulus package, and a contentious election.
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Weekly Market Commentary: Market Responses to Election Uncertainty
October 8, 2020November presidential election results may be delayed or disputed, or both, and President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis adds to the noise. How will the markets react to this election uncertainty?
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LPL Street View - Stocks and the Election Don’t Mix
October 8, 2020Investors are asking if they should sell off stocks prior to the election. In this 2-minute Street View video, LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick explains that how the economy is doing matters more than who is in the White House.
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Signs of Strength in the Economy
October 8, 2020Autumn has arrived, with students back in school, baseball playoffs beginning, and football in full swing. Life is trying to get back to as normal as possible despite the ongoing impact from COVID-19. Although there are still reasons to worry, a number of positives are on the horizon.
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Weekly Market Commentary: What Technology's Correction Means
September 30, 2020The recent correction in the S&P 500 Index's technology sector presents a unique challenge to markets following a historic stretch of outperformance as technology's share of the market has ballooned in size. Despite September weakness in this sector that has dragged the broader market lower, we expect technology leadership to continue given supportive underlying fundamental and technical conditions.
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LPL Market Signals - A Market in Motion Stays In Motion
September 30, 2020LPL Financial Research reviews the 6-month S&P 500 rally, tech’s pullback, seasonal weakness, and potential economic impact from COVID-19 and the elections.
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LPL Market Signals - 100 Market Signals and Counting
September 28, 2020The S&P 500 sell-off and US dollar may be signaling an election winner, while the Fed signals for more stimulus.
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Weekly Market Commentary: Central Bank Season
September 28, 2020The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan met in September to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Their policies remain focused on economic recovery, with an eye on COVID-19 developments.
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LPL Street View - Recessions and Recoveries Go Together
September 28, 2020LPL Financial Research Chief Investment Officer Burt White explains what a K-shaped recovery means and how the ability to adapt may predict future successes.
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LPL Market Signals - The Correction Continues
September 15, 2020A NASDAQ correction and K-shaped recovery may mean more stock weakness, while stocks may be signaling an election winner.
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Weekly Market Commentary: The Bull Case for Stocks
September 15, 2020Markets have been on a wild ride in September so far, with early strong days followed by one of the sharpest 10% corrections ever for the NASDAQ. Where will stocks go from here?
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LPL Market Signals – Socially Distant From Focus 2020
September 15, 2020Burt White and Ryan Detrick discuss current market events in a socially distant manner live from Focus 2020.
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Weekly Market Commentary: Top 10 Investor Questions
September 15, 2020Why have stocks done so well in such a challenging economic environment and with COVID-19 still an ongoing threat? We answer that and other top questions from investors.
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LPL Market Signals - Is This The Start Of The Sell-Off?
September 15, 2020LPL Research strategists discuss the S&P 500's recent win streak and its big drop. Is this the start of the sell-off?
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Back to School in a New Way
September 15, 2020Going back to school signals changes for everyone, including COVID-19 preparedness, an election, and impressive S&P 500 performance.
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LPL Street View - The Recession Is Likely Over
September 15, 2020LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick highlights improving economic data that suggests the recession may be over.
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LPL Market Signals - What Happens If Trump Wins?
September 15, 2020August delivered an uncharacteristically strong performance, but it’s followed by September, a historically weak month. In Part 2 of our two-part election preview series, we focus on what a potential second term for President Donald Trump could mean for stocks and the economy.
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Election Preview Part II: A Trump Second Term—Upside and Risks
September 1, 2020A second term for President Donald Trump would likely feature a continuation of the pro-growth policies from the first term of his administration, and importantly for financial markets, a continuation of the status quo. Markets don't like uncertainty, and while Trump's negotiating style has been unpredictable at times, his commitment to lower taxes and deregulation may provide a consistent, market-friendly policy environment.
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LPL Market Signals - What May Happen if Biden Wins?
September 1, 2020This week in the LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Financial's Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder discuss the impacts of a potential Joe Biden victory.
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Election Preview Part 1: A Biden Presidency—Upside and Risks
September 1, 2020While a potential Biden presidency may mean a shift from some pro-growth policies of the Trump administration, it's possible any negative market impact may be muted. Economic forces tend to dominate policy, though policy still matters, and historically, markets and the economy have shown little preference for either Republican or Democratic leadership.
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Street View: The Most Powerful Force in US Politics
September 1, 2020What do the distance to the sun and the US presidential election have in common? LPL Financial Research CIO Burt White talks about the impact the most powerful force in US politics can have on an election.
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Weekly Market Commentary: 5 Earnings Season Takeaways
September 1, 2020Corporate earnings blew away expectations this quarter, with an average upside surprise of 22%. There are a number of reasons estimates were off, and we have five key takeaways from this earnings season.
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LPL Market Signals - Is the Recession Over?
September 1, 2020The recession may be over, according to recent economic data. The S&P 500 Index had its best 100-day rally ever, gaining off March 23 lows. Q2 corporate earnings were down, but better than estimates, and forward guidance has been upbeat.
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LPL Market Signals - Dissecting the Disconnect
September 1, 2020LPL Financial Research strategists explore some differences between the stock market and the economy in an attempt to explain the disconnect and also discuss the latest economic data.
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Weekly Market Commentary: Dissecting the Disconnect
September 1, 2020We highlight some differences between the stock market and the economy in an attempt to explain the disconnect.
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Street View: Let's Talk About Gold
August 18, 2020LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick talks about why gold is at all-time highs and we’re bullish on gold.
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Positive Territory
August 18, 2020The S&P 500 Index has moved into positive territory and some data appears good, while other data remains troubling.
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Market Signals - Seasonality, Sentiment, and Stocks
August 18, 2020LPL Financial Research discusses the historically troublesome months of August and September, market sentiment, corporate earnings, and glistening gold.
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Weekly Market Commentary: Calendar Concerns and Gold Gains
August 18, 2020Real-time economic data continues to show a slowdown, at the same time we're entering two months of the year that historically have been troublesome for stocks. Meanwhile, gold is breaking out to new all-time highs, confusing many as to what it all means. Stocks are likely due for a breather, but it isn't out of the ordinary to see both gold and stocks trend higher together.
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LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2020 in Charts
August 3, 2020LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder share LPL Research’s 2020 midyear outlook presentation and preview election 2020.
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Market Signals - Economy Slowing, But Not Stopping
August 3, 2020Slowing economic data and its impact on the stock market rally, record-high gold, and a busy week in corporate earnings are on tap for LPL Financial Research.
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Market Signals - Weighing Winners and Losers
August 3, 2020Stocks continue to gain on hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine, but many economic data points still show weakness. Value-style stocks had a good showing against growth recently. And Q2 earnings may have hit a trough. We look at the winners and the losers.
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Weekly Market Commentary: Stalling Economic Recovery May Slow Stock Market Rally
August 3, 2020Stock market weakness late last week caused investors to ask whether the long-awaited market pullback may be at hand. This week, we review the drivers of the market's impressive rally back to the break-even point for the year, share our thoughts on whether the gains are justified, and take a look at some timely data for clues on the state of the economic recovery.
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Weekly Market Commentary: An Earnings Season To Forget
July 22, 2020The unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 lockdowns and widespread withdrawal of corporate guidance has set up an unpredictable earnings season.
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Street View: A Paparrazzi View of PPP
July 17, 2020In A Paparazzi View of PPP, LPL Research Chief Investment Officer Burt White takes a big-picture look at Congress’s small business rescue package, also called the Paycheck Protection Program or PPP.
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Midyear Outlook 2020: The Trail To Recovery
July 17, 2020LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2020 provides our updated views of the pillars for investing—the economy, bonds, and stocks.
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Fourth of July Optimism
July 17, 2020The July Fourth holiday will be very different this year. Recent economic data has been better than expected, while a summer consolidation in the markets may be possible.
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Looking Forward
July 17, 2020As we look ahead to the summer months, we can’t help but think what a challenging year it’s been so far.
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Better Times Are Coming
July 17, 2020 Our country has survived many trying times before, and we are starting to see glimmers of hope on both the medical and economic fronts. Our resolve and fortitude will once again shine, as we head toward better times in the second half of 2020.
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Weekly Market Commentary - Time For a Pause?
May 11, 2020Stocks have had a historic run amid increasingly negative headlines.
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Nowhere To Go But Up
May 11, 2020As lockdown restrictions are lifted, timely indicators like vehicle traffic, electricity consumption, public transportation use, daily consumer confidence surveys, and a wide variety of weekly economic indicators point to a low mark in economic activity in the United Statesin April.
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2020 Gains on 2019
May 11, 20202019 delivered a strong market performance, but we think additional market gains may be possible in 2020.
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Bumps in the Road
May 11, 2020Even with some bumps in the road, we expect the economic expansion to continue through 2020 and help power forward this bull market.
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A Unique Economic Situation
May 11, 2020As we adapt to these changes in our daily lives, the stock markets have had to adapt to the new economic realities as well.
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How We Respond Matters
May 11, 2020As the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic continues, how we respond to it will determine how we beat it.
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Street View: Central Banks Are All In
May 5, 2020LPL Financial Research Sr. Market Strategist Ryan Detrick says central banks have pledged to support global economies and bring back confidence and liquidity.
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Street View: Gas Guzzling Contracts
May 5, 2020LPL Financial Research CIO Burt White explains why current low demand for oil is about more than cheap gas prices--it's also about who controls oil production around the world.
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Coping with Market Volatility: Avoid Rash Decisions
April 9, 2020During periods of market volatility, avoid making investment decisions based on emotions.
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CARES Act Provides Relief to Individuals and Businesses
April 9, 2020The $2 trillion emergency relief package represents a bipartisan effort intended to assist individuals and businesses during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and accompanying economic crisis.
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When It Rains Gold, Reach for A Bucket
April 9, 2020Longer-term investors may want to consider looking for opportunities to invest in an eventual market recovery, as stocks are in the zone where adding to equity exposure could be quite beneficial.
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A Test of Our Resolve
April 9, 2020Resolve requires more than just the courage to stare down the unknown—it is the commitment to overcome it.
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March Markets Like A Lion
March 24, 2020The number of coronavirus cases have continued to increase globally, and new cases have been confirmed in the United States. Countries are making progress with containment, but those efforts also have resulted in a reduction in economic activity, adding to market uncertainty.
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COVID-19 and Oil Prices
March 24, 2020The tough times that global markets were experiencing due to the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) worsened this past weekend as a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia resulted in sharply declining oil prices.
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A Clear Vision of Financial Goals
March 24, 2020Global economic growth has been slowing, the US economy likely will contract temporarily, and US stocks have entered a bear market.
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Managing Volatility & Looking for Some Green Shoots
March 24, 2020The S&P 500 Index entered a bear market on Thursday, closing -27% below its February 20 high.
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