One of the most difficult questions for investors to answer right now is how can the US economy be struggling so much while the stock market keeps churning higher? Even harder to answer questions are: When will that gap close and what will be the catalyst that starts to close it? We highlight some differences between the stock market and the economy in an attempt to explain the disconnect.
MAKING SENSE OF THE RALLY
The stock market continues to do quite well. The S&P 500 Index, which has risen four straight months, has returned 5% so far in 2020, despite probably the worst pandemic in the United States in 100 years and one of the sharpest economic contractions since the Great Depression. How does that makes sense? Let’s start with some context for the stock market’s recent strength:
1) The pandemic has an end date. Markets are looking forward to better days ahead. Although the timing is uncertain, the stock market is expressing confidence that the pandemic will end eventually with a vaccine—or multiple vaccines—and with help from better treatments in the interim. Progress has been tremendous with many shots on goal that are likely to score at least one and maybe more success stories.
2) Low interest rates. Stocks are expensive, no doubt, but they look cheap compared with US Treasuries yielding about 0.5%. When discounting future profits back at such low interest rates, equity valuations get a significant boost.
3) Massive monetary stimulus. The stimulus from the Federal Reserve has driven the money supply, measured by M2, sharply higher—roughly 25% above last year’s levels. Some of that money has found a home in the stock market. Historically, money supply growth and stock prices have tended to move together, which has certainly been the case over the past few months.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
US Treasuries may be considered “safe haven” investments but do carry some degree of risk including interest rate, credit, and market risk. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The PE ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio.
Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability. Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single most important variable in determining a share’s price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.
All index data from FactSet.
Please read the full Midyear Outlook 2020: The Trail to Recovery publication for additional description and disclosure.
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