Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism

LPL Research recently unveiled Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism. The annual update offers a comprehensive analysis of the economic and market environment. I’m excited to bring to you a few of the key takeaways today.

Looking back on 2024, it clearly echoed many of the themes from 2023. There were some brief economic growth scares along the way, but the broader economy continued to defy expectations and surprised once again to the upside. Stocks continued their strong performance, putting the S&P 500 on track to record its second consecutive year of 20% plus returns. Powerful trends in artificial intelligence and technology have continued unabated and largely overshadowed other factors like election uncertainty, continued geopolitical tension, and some rich stock valuation levels. After the election, the anticipation of potentially market-friendly policies from the incoming administration also helped to bolster stocks.

The bond market, in contrast, experienced another lackluster year. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) initiated a long-awaited easing cycle, policy ambiguity and uneasiness over rising debt levels led to increased volatility in bonds, but no clear directional trend.

As 2025 approaches, there are reasons to remain cautiously optimistic. Cautious because no market environment is ever permanent, and change is always potentially around the corner. Optimistic because constructive long-term technology trends are recognizably in place. Plus, potential tax policy and deregulation efforts in 2025 could provide some semblance of a tailwind—particularly from an economic perspective. While risky asset returns are not expected to be as robust as 2024, 2025’s investment environment should prove to be favorable for investors.

These are just some of the insights you’ll find in Outlook 2025. The full report, combined with my guidance, can help you navigate through market complexities and crosscurrents and continue to work toward achieving your goals.

I wish you a safe and enjoyable holiday season. As always, please reach out to me with questions.

Warmest Regards,

Richard D. Nash
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor (CRPC)
CRPC conferred by the College for Financial Planning

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of December 10, 2024.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.